Investor Insights

October 10, 2025

Canary in the coal mine? New Zealand joins rate cut trend

By David Buckland

In the past 14 months, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut its cash rate on seven separate occasions by an aggregate 3. 0 per cent from 5. 5 per cent to 2. 5 per cent, as seen in Table 1. Table 1. Reserve bank of New Zealand rate cuts Cash rate (%) Peak 5.
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October 8, 2025

Is artificial intelligence stealing jobs?

By Roger Montgomery

On November 30, 2022, the world marvelled at the release and conversational prowess of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. What the world might have missed, however, was the subtle shift that began rippling through the U. S. economy.
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October 2, 2025

Rates reset across the West

By David Buckland

Central banks across the Western world have been busy recalibrating policy settings, with interest rate cuts a common theme over the past 12-15 months. But the reasons for these moves, and the consequences, vary widely between economies. In the following analysis, I examine the recent cash rate changes across Australia, the U. S.
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October 2, 2025

The crypto treasury frenzy

By Roger Montgomery

This U. S. summer, a new investment frenzy – akin to the SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) exuberance of 2020/21 – has gripped Wall Street as companies transform their balance sheets into crypto vaults. And as September unfolds, the corporate dash into cryptocurrencies shows no signs of slowing.
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October 1, 2025

Optimism surrounds artificial intelligence numbers

By Roger Montgomery

As I delve a little deeper into the aggregate artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex) numbers and the revenue and profits subsequently required to recoup them, one thing stands out: a world of AI forecasts that are universally optimistic. That’s not usual in any hype-inspired boom, but these numbers are extraordinary. Table 1.
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September 30, 2025

This time is different!

By Roger Montgomery

Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable. But boy, it’s fun to inquire. That was then In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations.
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September 26, 2025

The bull case for small caps

By Roger Montgomery

If you were listening carefully during reporting season, you might have noticed a growing buzz around small-cap stocks, both here in Australia and in the United States. More investors are now seeing small caps as a hidden gem. Small caps seem undervalued, overlooked, and are showing signs of a strong recovery.
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September 24, 2025

In gold we trust

By Roger Montgomery

With trust in central financial institutions being undermined, and with the U. S. dollar’s status as the world’s unassailable reserve currency being called into question, it comes as no surprise that gold is the asset cementing its place in the spotlight. As Figure 1. , reveals the exponential ascent of gold’s price. Figure 1.
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September 24, 2025

Sky high bond yields: a reckoning for equity investors?

By Roger Montgomery

A falling U. S. dollar, China and Russia stacking gold and angling to take Taiwan, surging U. S. debt and a President dismantling the independence of America’s central bank. It’s no wonder bond yields are high. Fiscal recklessness is stirring in the bond markets, and long-dated government debt appears to be under siege once again. Yields on 30-year U.
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September 23, 2025

Are the Magnificent Seven still magnificent?

By Roger Montgomery

In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U. S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory.
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September 22, 2025

Turbulence in global bonds and a steady beat in US earnings

By Roger Montgomery

If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Just look at the past couple of weeks: Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down after his party’s weak election showing, and France’s François Bayrou was ousted in a no-confidence vote.
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September 18, 2025

To help fix the housing crisis, we need smarter migration policy

By Roger Montgomery

As investors, we have a particular interest in Australia’s condition, its desirability as a destination for living and its quality as a destination for investing. For some time now, I have feared better destinations exist elsewhere. Whether deliberate or unwitting, the government is not prioritising the betterment of the nation.
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