Investor Insights

April 12, 2023

What we can learn from Japan’s ageing population

By Roger Montgomery

Japan’s population is getting older. Today, the ‘land of the rising sun’ has the world’s highest median age, and is the world’s fastest ageing country. Largely as a consequence, innovation, investment and development are slowing, and this is contributing to the country’s ongoing economic stagnation.
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April 11, 2023

The Aura High Yield SME Fund receives a “Very Strong” rating from Foresight Analytics

By David Buckland

The Aura High Yield SME Fund recently received a “Very Strong” Investment Rating from Foresight Analytics, indicating a “very strong conviction” Aura “can deliver a risk-adjusted return in line with the investment objectives of the Fund. ” And given its “Complex” designation, I thought it valuable to reiterate some of the more insightful points in the report.
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April 6, 2023

Is the Future of E-Commerce Still Bright?

By Polen Capital

Three years ago, in March 2020, the head of the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. Immediately after, entire nations went into lockdown, upending life as we knew it. Amid the health crisis, people adapted to the “new normal” by adjusting their lifestyles and developing new habits.
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March 31, 2023

Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 31 March 2023

By Brett Craig

This week saw the release of two key economic indicators; the monthly indicator of the Consumer Price Index and Job Vacancies data. Both are displaying a slight softening in the economy, perhaps an early indication of the contractionary monetary policies explored last week, increases to the cash rate and quantitative tightening, beginning to take their intended effect.
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March 28, 2023

Why it pays to invest when Mr Market is feeling gloomy

By Roger Montgomery

If you’re needing some encouragement to invest in this anxious market, take a look at historical share returns in the U. S. and Australia. Research going back almost 200 years has found that you have a 71 per cent chance of a positive return in the U. S. in any given year.
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March 23, 2023

Are today’s circumstances similar to the GFC?

By Roger Montgomery

  In this week’s video insight Roger reviews the current market situation, including the collapse of U. S. banks and in the fast-moving financial markets, while it may seem risky to rule out another GFC, the probability, upon an assessment of the odds, appears to be low.
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March 21, 2023

Volatility is the window to opportunity

By Michael Gollagher

In the past fortnight we have seen the markets swing from a focus on interest rates and inflation, to the prospect of the stability of the Global Financial System post the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks in the U. S.
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March 20, 2023

This too will pass

By Roger Montgomery

Market and finance commentators have expended enormous energy writing on the subject of the collapse of Silicon Valley, Signature and Silvergate banks, and the subsequent challenges faced by Credit Suisse. And equally expert commentary will soon speculate about who’ll be next and then about those that subsequently do collapse (First Republic Bank anyone?
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March 16, 2023

What does the U.S. yield curve tell us about recessions?

By Roger Montgomery

Today, the vast majority of the U. S. yield curve is negatively sloped. Every time this has happened in the past, a recession soon followed. This is no doubt troubling for those adversely affected. But, as an investor, I am not unduly concerned – any market turmoil could present opportunities to invest in quality businesses at bargain prices.
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March 14, 2023

Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 10 March 2023

By Brett Craig

The RBA is “resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.” Last week’s 25 basis point rise to the official cash rate, now sitting at 3.6 per cent, forms part of the RBA’s approach to reign inflation back into the 2-3 per cent target range, implying that further pain is ahead.

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March 10, 2023

Let down by bonds? Private debt is worth a look

By Roger Montgomery

For all the doom and gloom being proffered by various analysts it might surprise you to learn the Australian economy is actually growing. And it grew 2. 7 per cent over the last year. Sure, the rate of growth might be slowing, but we’re still growing.
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March 9, 2023

Is QBE finally back on track?

By Sean Sequeira

Just a cursory glance at the share price history of QBE Insurance Group (ASX:QBE) is enough to scare most investors away. After hitting a high of around $34 back in 2007, the stock has more than halved to around $15.
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