Investor Insights

June 12, 2020

Why I’m being fearful during this market euphoria

By Roger Montgomery

Warren Buffett famously said that, to be a successful investor, you should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.  I think his advice is especially relevant in today’s ‘risk on’ environment, in which the fear of missing out is usurping the fear of loss.
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June 10, 2020

New data confirms the meteoric rise of online shopping

The government-imposed COVID-19 lockdown accelerated a number of social trends. One of those was our increasing preference for online shopping. Recent data shows that even though the lockdown pushed total retail sales off a cliff in April, online sales shot up. And one retailer – Kogan – stood out from the pack.
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June 10, 2020

New data confirms the meteoric rise of online shopping

The government-imposed COVID-19 lockdown accelerated a number of social trends. One of those was our increasing preference for online shopping. Recent data shows that even though the lockdown pushed total retail sales off a cliff in April, online sales shot up. And one retailer – Kogan – stood out from the pack.
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June 10, 2020

Crisis? What crisis? The market says it’s time to buy

By Roger Montgomery

If you’re scratching your head over the market’s strong rebound since March, then join the club. Because there’s still a large cohort of economists and analysts who continue to see tough times ahead. I recently pointed to a definite recovery off the low levels of activity recorded  during the COVID-19 lockdowns.
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June 4, 2020

Why shorting pie in the sky is dangerous

We often hear market pundits comment on expensive stocks that currently make no money, labelling them as “great shorts. ” The Teslas, Pelotons, and Snaps of the world are examples of this that are recognisable to most. But are they in fact great shorts?
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June 3, 2020

The COVID quake may have structural aftershocks: Part I

By Amit Nath

COVID-19 has sent the global economy into recession. It will come as no surprise to readers that advertising is a cyclical industry linked to the macro economy. Generally speaking, when the economy is growing, advertising revenues are growing and when the economy is contracting, advertising revenues are contracting.
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June 1, 2020

EML looks set to thrive as economies reopen

By Dominic Rose

EML Payments (ASX:EML) is an exciting Fintech that delivers innovative payment processing technologies to organisations operating within many industries and countries. The business has weathered the COVID-19 lockdown much better than feared, and is now ideally placed to benefit as global economies reopen and the structural migration trend towards digital payments accelerates.
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May 29, 2020

The power of owning long-term winners

The power of compounding, or the “eighth wonder of the world” as Albert Einstein called it, can be counterintuitive sometimes. Small increases in annual returns, when compounded over long periods of time, result in very large increases in one’s investment. See the table below, for example.
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May 28, 2020

Avita Medical – a small cap with big potential

Around 12 months ago, we noted that Avita Medical (ASX:AVH) – which provides a novel approach to skin regeneration – was a business worth keeping tabs on.   Although its share price has felt the effects of the COVID-19 market sell-off, our positive view of the company has not changed.
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May 26, 2020

Earnings still matter

Indicators worldwide continue to reflect the damaging effects of the coronavirus pandemic and associated restrictions on economic activity and business profits. Yet puzzlingly equity markets have continued to rise. This suggests that the equity market does not seem to care about earnings – yet. History shows that in the long run earnings will still matter.
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May 26, 2020

Why I don’t expect a V-shaped recovery

By Roger Montgomery

The massive dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic are having only a temporary impact on stock markets, which are pricing in a V-shaped income, earnings and economic recovery. But is this optimism warranted? Or will we continue to see businesses negatively impacted for some time to come?
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