States around the US have begun putting their hands up to be some of the first to trial reopening their economies. Nationally, the US leads the world in infections and deaths due to COVID-19, and by some margin.
With the Australian market rebounding strongly, some investors could be experiencing a fear of missing out. But an analysis of economic conditions tells me there’s no rush to dive in. With the market looking expensive, so many uncertainties in the world, and a growing list of dilutive capital raisings, is it a good time to sit on your hands?
Every quarter when reporting season rolls around, there are always new insights gleaned that can provide a broader read-through on emerging trends. Perhaps with the uncertainty from the COVID-19 (C19) pandemic, this reporting season will be watched for clues more eagerly than usual.
Now that governments are talking about re-opening the economy, investors can start thinking about the businesses that might provide the best returns as we emerge from economic hibernation. Here, I give a quick appraisal of the investment landscape, and identify the key attributes of businesses that I think will rebound the hardest.
Ping An Insurance Company is arguably the most successful insurance company in China and the largest insurer globally by market capitalization. Ping An is anchored by its industry-leading life and health insurance business (Ping An Life) and has an attractive satellite of other insurance, banking and fintech operations that combine to form a robust financial services ecosystem.
When governments around the world shut down travel in order to contain the spread of COVID-19, Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX:FLT) suddenly found itself on its knees. Its share price plummeted, from $40 to around $9. Now, post a capital raising, the business can breathe easy for a while. But is it a good investment?
If you’re holding shares in an Australian bank – particularly National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), Westpac (ASX:WBC) or Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX:ANZ) – then you’re likely feeling less wealthy than you were back before Coronavirus was a household word.
Investing in small cap mining services firms is not for the faint hearted given their exposure to the commodities cycle. But with the sector down around 40 per cent year to date (vs Small Ords down 23 per cent), and most major miners continuing to produce, we see value as attractive for the risk.
Stuck with one per cent returns on cash balances, investors migrated to equities for their superior yields and hoped-for capital gains. What was forgotten in the mad dash for a better return, was that ‘one per cent is better than minus twenty.
In this continually-evolving crisis, we update our investors again with a brief summary of how we are assessing the risks for our global equity portfolios. The coronavirus
The most important datapoint in determining the economic cost of this pandemic is its duration. This will dictate the length of time that consumers and businesses face restricted activities.
With the Australian share market rallying strongly in April off the 25 March low, there has been a spate of capital raisings by cash-strapped companies looking to reduce debt and/or ‘pay the bills’. One of those is travel retailer, Flight Centre (ASX:FLT).
