With the demise of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the effect on Credit Suisse – its share price has declined 90 per cent in five years to CHF1.70 – I thought it appropriate to return to basics and dig a bit deeper into what constitutes a “Quality” business, also known as a “Compounding Machine”.
Company 1 (US$m) |
|
|
Company 2 (US$m) |
|
|
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) – 15% p.a. growth |
Capital Investment = 75% of NOPAT |
Free Cash Flows = 25% of NOPAT |
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)- 15% p.a. growth |
Capital Investment = 150% of NOPAT |
Free Cash Flows = Negative 50% of NOPAT |
100 |
|
|
100 |
|
|
115 |
86 |
29 |
115 |
173 |
-58 |
132 |
99 |
33 |
132 |
198 |
-66 |
152 |
114 |
38 |
152 |
228 |
-76 |
175 |
131 |
44 |
175 |
262 |
-87 |
201 |
151 |
50 |
201 |
302 |
-101 |
231 |
173 |
58 |
231 |
347 |
-116 |
266 |
200 |
67 |
266 |
399 |
-133 |
306 |
229 |
76 |
306 |
459 |
-153 |
352 |
264 |
88 |
352 |
528 |
-176 |
405 |
303 |
101 |
405 |
607 |
-202 |
4.05X = 15% CAG over 10 years |
15% CAG |
15% CAG Aggregate FCF is $584 |
4.05X = 15% CAG over 10 years |
15% CAG |
15% CAG Aggregate FCF is negative $1167 |
In summary, Company 1 spends 75 per cent of its annual Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) on Capital Investment leaving it with US$584 million of cash at the end of the ten-year period under review for M&A activity, dividends or buybacks. Company 2 spends 150 per cent of its annual Net Operating Profit After Tax on Capital Investment leaving it with negative US$1,167 million of cash at the end of the ten-year period under review and will need to tap the debt and/or equity markets to continue as a going concern. I repeat, it is this cost of growth calculation which analysts often under-estimate.